Vietnam: Extending Growth Story

May 2015
By Phuong Hoang, SSI Research & Investment Advisory

Vietnam GDP growth in 1Q2015 delivered 6.03% YoY, even higher than full year 2014 growth, despite of the fact that 1Q is conventionally the low season. As we expected, final consumption spearheaded growth (8.67% YoY) and the gain was paired with widened trade deficit. In April, Vietnam reverted back to a trade surplus, which provided a soft cushion for the local currency after the central bank depreciated the exchange rate twice (1% each) in January and May. The trade deficit in the 1Q15 was driven mainly by the FDI sector while the BOP remained in surplus. FDI disbursement is expected to be stable in 2015 (at average USD 1bn/month) and continue to target at manufacturing sector.

Vietnam Retail Sale Growth Breakdown 2009-2015

Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO)

About the Author:
Ms. Phuong Hoang joined SSI Research & Investment Advisory at the beginning of 2007, and her involvement has awarded her with 8 years of experiences and insights into the Vietnamese Stock Market. Sectors under her coverage included conglomerates, steel, pharmaceuticals, oil & gas and is currently spearheading equity strategy. Ms. Phuong Hoang was made Head of Institutional Research and Investment Advisory in 2011. In 2013 & 2014, she was awarded with the Best Country Analyst and Best Strategist-Vietnam and under her leadership, SSI Research took home the major award categories in the highly publicized Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2013 & 2014, including Best Country Research-Vietnam.
Prior to joining SSI, Ms. Phuong spent 4 years at the Netherlands Embassy in Vietnam, where she provided investment advisory to Netherlands companies and organizations that invest in Vietnam and another 2 years in the transportation sector.
Ms. Phuong obtained a MSc in Information Management & Finance from the University of Westminster, UK, and underwent an intensive training regimen at Daiwa Capital Market’s Institute of Research in Hong Kong in 2008.

The article above is an opinion of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of MV Index Solutions or its affiliates.

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